Spring is in, bringing with it warmer weather, horse racing, house trading and the almost inevitable interest rate move by the central bank.
While the first three are staples of the Australian calendar, the last one is fast becoming a fixture. The Reserve Bank has picked November to ratchet official interest rates higher or lower for each of the past six Melbourne Cup Days.
This November may be no different - with investors pencilling in another RBA interest rate cut by then. The only doubt, it seems, is whether the central bankers will wait that long, with the odds slightly better than even that the reduction will come at the bank's October 2 rates meeting.
"[We are] looking for 50 basis points of rate cuts from the RBA over November-December, with a risk they may start in October," said UBS economist Scott Haslem. That view marks a shift from their earlier forecast that the RBA would be content to leave rates on hold at the current 3.5 per cent for the rest of 2012.
The RBA certainly has some worrying signals to consider about the strength of the Australian economy. Housing markets remain sluggish - notwithstanding the annual 'Spring selling season' - consumers aren't in the mood to spend big, and now the mining boom is losing some of its bluster.
China key
China is likely to be the trigger, if the RBA needs one. The country accounts for about a third of Australia's exports, with its impact amplified because of China's impact on the growth rates of neighbours such as Japan and South Korea.
The latest monthly data from the Middle Kingdom has generally been on the weak side - particularly trade - reflecting in part the effects of earlier efforts to cool the overheated property sector but also waning demand for yet more Chinese-made goods in the US and Europe.
National Australia Bank economist Rob Henderson said the market is tilting towards an interest rate cut next month rather than November, with China only one of several risks stalking financial markets.
"I think a 60 per cent chance from the market's perspective is not a bad probability to have priced for October," he said.
In addition to concerns about China, Europe's debt crisis has hardly gone away. Germany's Constitutional Court, for instance, is expected to rule on the validity of the European Central Bank's bailout fund as soon as tomorrow, while the Dutch will hold elections - both events could rattle or reassure investors.
Westpac head of Australian interest rate strategy Damien McColough said the backdrop to the RBA's October decision was "worsening" making at least a 50-50 bet on a rate cut in October "fair."
Fixed-rate movers
The major banks are sending signals of their own, concerning where they think rates are headed, with several of them already cutting their fixed-rate loans.
Westpac yesterday sliced between 5 and 50 basis points from their fixed-rate mortgages.
Data from RateCity showed that since September 1, Commonwealth Bank cut fixed-rate mortgages by an average of 20 basis points and National Australia Bank reduced theirs by an average of 15 basis points. (There are 100 basis points in a percentage point.)
“Fixed home loan rates are usually an indicator of the direction variable home loan rates will take so when fixed rates drop it usually means variable rates will follow," said RateCity spokeswoman Michelle Hutchison.
The ANZ holds its regular monthly review of interest rates on Friday. A cut in their variable interest rates would be the first since the bank started down an independent path from the RBA in January. A spokesman declined to speculation on the bank's likely decision.
It has, though, lifted rates in a month when the central bank stayed put.
While financial markets fluctuate hourly according to sentiment shifts, the RBA's main focus remains the state of the domestic economy. Australia marked 21 consecutive years of growth at the end of the June quarter, and the jobless rate even dropped back to 5.1 per cent last month, underscoring the economy's ongoing resilience.
Big miners, though, are cutting back as falls in key commodities make some mines unprofitable. BHP Billiton and Xstrata yesterday revealed plans to cut 900 jobs in their Queensland coal operations.
The RBA, no doubt, will be watching for more such weakness before deciding to use up more of their stimulus ammunition. For now, though, investors reckon on two more cuts this year and another two by next September - bringing the cash to levels not seen in at least half a century.