Remember the dire forecasts of mass layoffs in the construction industry? Like so many others, they've been wrong. A little-noticed statistic today shows the industry doing much better than anyone hoped and employment is steady.
The monthly Australian Bureau of Statistics' preliminary pre-mixed concrete production figures aren't headline-hogging show ponies like the CPI and labor force stats, but they tell an important story as a good albeit rough guide to what's happening in construction.
And today's story is that plenty was happening last month. In the six state capitals, 1,226,000 cubic metres of pre-mixed concrete was produced - and that stuff doesn't sit on a shelf waiting just in case someone suddenly decides they want to do a pour.
That's down 9 per cent on July 2008, but remember that construction was still booming at the start of the last financial year, with the industry enjoying a critical shortage of labor.
And that's the perspective that is generally lost or simply ignored in some of the more sensationalist reporting of labor market issues - the softening of our labor market should be seen in the context of full employment being around the 4 per cent level anyway. What the Reserve Bank was doing with interest rates when unemployment was that low suggests our central bank thought 4 per cent was unsustainably low.
CBUS, the construction and building industry superannuation fund, remains wary of the employment outlook deteriorating but it has been pleasantly surprised at the way employer contributions have held up in the six months to June 30.
Employer contributions were $684 million for the June half of 2008 and $723 million for the latest period. For June itself, $191 million rolled in from employers this year, up from $186 million in June 2008.
(And just in case you were wondering, CBUS employer contributions for the latest financial year totalled $1,389 million, up from $1,259 million - a lot of money going into superannuation.)
The small rise June on June could be put down to higher wages, but the percentage of members' accounts recording contributions is remaining strong.
With all those primary school halls and libraries coming down the construction pipeline, there's life in the building industry yet - and never mind the RBA's desired lift in building approvals.
I have argued since Budget night that the least credible forecast from Treasury was its prediction that Australia's investment in dwellings would go backwards this financial year and be flat in 2010/11. After five years of more-or-less steady dwelling investment as a percentage of GDP and record population growth, it seems Treasury has been too conservative.
There has been a downturn in business investment intentions for big-ticket construction and credit is extremely hard to come by for anyone with dreams of building a new office block, but so far the combination of good monetary and fiscal policy and the on-going commodities boom continues to thwart the Doomsday merchants.
Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor.
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