The fallout from the global financial crisis is expected to have hit profits of mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto when they are revealed this week.

But analysts say the miner’s results will show signs of improvement in the second half of 2009 and one believes BHP Billiton’s iron ore earnings could exceed expectations.

The market consensus from 20 analysts is for BHP Billiton to record attributable profit before exceptional items of $US5.1 billion ($5.86 billion) in the half-year to December 31, when it reports on Wednesday.

That figure would be down $1.02 billion, or 16.7 per cent, from the $US6.12 billion profit recorded in the corresponding period of 2008/09.

Analysts expect underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $US7.9 billion for the six months to December 31, down from $US11.9 billion a year earlier.

Rio Tinto is also expected to get its full year profits slugged when it reports on Thursday, after a year impacted by the global financial crisis.

Consensus figures say Rio’s underlying earnings before exceptional items will be $US6.0 billion, way down on the $US10.3 billion recorded for 2008.

That latest consensus figure includes a $US797 million post-tax gain from the disposal of undeveloped potash assets in Argentina and Canada.

UBS head of resources research Glyn Lawcock expects both companies’ results to show an improvement in the second half of 2009 compared to the first part of the calendar year.

‘‘The June half was the toughest period and the second half of calendar 2009 was a much stronger period, where commodity prices turned around,’’ Dr Lawcock said.

Dr Lawcock said the drivers of growth for BHP Billiton are expected to be the iron ore, coal, copper and petroleum divisions.

RBS Morgans resources analyst Warren Edney said BHP Billiton’s half-year results had the potential to exceed expectations, because it was difficult to know the achieved price of iron ore sales.

‘‘The price differential between spot and the benchmark was highly variable during the past six months,’’ Mr Edney said.

Mr Edney said he was waiting to see whether Rio Tinto would make any announcements about restarting growth projects, given their debt situation had improved during the past 12 months.

BHP Billiton shares closed up 5 cents to $39.60 today, while Rio Tinto finished up 58 cents to $67.18.

AAP