A MONTH ago, as the meltdown in global markets was gathering pace, an economics professor at Princeton University summed up the mood.
"It's like having a fire in a cinema," said Hyun Song Shin. "Everybody is rushing to the door. You are rushing to the door because everyone is rushing to the door.
"Clearly, as a collective action, it is a disaster."
The S&P/ASX 200 index was hovering near 5000 points at the time. Three weeks later it had tumbled below 4000 as investors rushed for the door.
Despite this week's rally, most executives are keeping an ear out for news of financial spot fires - especially when it comes to discretionary spending. Telstra chief financial officer John Stanhope has noted a few worrying signs.
"We are seeing an impact on pay TV subscriptions … they are slowing down," he said. "Calls to 1234 to connect through to restaurants have dropped off during the week. People are not eating out as much. I would call those discretionary services."
At least some of Telstra's core businesses have shown signs of resilience. "Mobile use, both post- and pre-pay, remain quite strong," Stanhope said. "But that is not to say we have seen the end of this."
It was a similar story from national retail chain Harvey Norman. Sales for the three months ended September 30 increased by 3% year-on-year, but the reports from the past three weeks provide some much grimmer reading.
Looking at its franchised stores, Harvey Norman reported that like-for-like written sales for the 28 days ended October 12 fell by 4.7% compared with last year. "Retail margins continue to be under pressure," Harvey Norman said.
In order to keep tabs on how the global credit crunch will hit the company's bottom line, Harvey Norman plans to provide a weekly update on its like-for-like written sales. "By doing this, the company hopes to give guidance as to what is really happening out in the retail market," it said.
"There are Harvey Norman franchised stores in every state and town of any significance in Australia. Sales turnover for the franchised Harvey Norman stores in Australia is indicative of retail market conditions."
Another keeping an eye on figures in coming weeks is Tabcorp. Last year's spring racing carnival was blighted by equine influenza, which slashed betting turnover by $347 million nationally and reduced Tabcorp's full-year earnings by $20 million.
In February, Tabcorp boss Elmer Funke Kupper declared the "rough ride" was over, but if Tabcorp was banking on a bumper carnival to make up for last year's woes, the early signs have been mixed.
Saturday's crowd at The Age Caulfield Guineas was the biggest in 25 years, but turnover of $15.5 million was exactly the same as for last year's race.
Tabcorp, like the wider racing industry, can ill-afford two bad spring carnivals in a row.
"We'll have a better idea of where we stand in coming weeks," said Tabcorp external communications manager Nicholas Tzaferis.
"It's difficult to gauge because last year's Caulfield Cup had the short-priced favourite scratched at the last minute, which meant we had to refund bets. It will take us a few more weeks yet to determine just how the crunch will affect turnover."
Watch this space
THE watched pot never boils, we are told as children.
It's grandmotherly advice the Rudd Government has ignored.
First came FuelWatch, which has done nothing to quell the weekly cycle of petrol prices. Next was GroceryWatch, which has done nothing to reduce the shopping bill. Now there is BankWatch, to monitor interest rates. Continued…
