The Intelligent Investor

Intelligent Investor

Why you should not give up on stocks

Nathan Bell The sharemarket isn't what it was. Even so, some investments stand out from the pack.

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Hybrid party over for Westpac?

Richard Livingston Since the launch of Woolies Notes II nine months ago, the hybrid party has been rocking.

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Overseas stocks ripe for the picking (III)

Nathan Bell Here are two more international stocks worth taking a close look at.

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Overseas stocks ripe for the picking (II)

Nathan Bell Here we follow up on other global stocks worth considering for your portfolio.

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Why it’s a great time to invest overseas

Nathan Bell Cheap, high quality international stocks can now be bought with your still expensive Australian dollars.

Rip off the Greek band aid

Richard Livingston Last week, the three parties that constitute Greece’s governing coalition released a policy statement indicating the country would push out by another two years the fiscal deadlines under the country’s bailout program.

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NAB sub notes: at sea and no lifejacket

Richard Livingston Investing in hybrids such as NAB's sub notes appears a safe, secure activity. But just when you need these qualities they sink without trace.

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The case for selling IAG

Nathan Bell IAG is now a riskier business and the possibility of a large capital return has been squandered.

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Is it time to sell BHP?

Nathan Bell Investors in commodity businesses have long worried about lower prices and China. Now there are two more reasons to fret: pigs and shale gas.

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Tide going out at Perpetual

Nathan Bell Perpetual shareholders might take some comfort from the 25 per cent rise in the company’s share price this year - but they shouldn't.

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Why CSL is a top 10 business

Nathan Bell Local investors searching for world-class businesses have limited options. But in the area of health, Australia has managed to produce some truly world-class companies.

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Why Wesfarmers isn't Australia's Berkshire Hathaway

Nathan Bell The two conglomerates are linked by a singular fact: without exceptional management, they tend to be appalling investments.

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Evolutionary investing: The Darwin approach

Nathan Bell Focus on mistaken purchases rather than the stocks that you didn’t buy.

Macquarie vs Goldman Sachs

How does our local investment banking champion stack up against the 'muppet' machine?

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IAG's CPS: rotten tomatoes with Basel

Nathan Bell A close look at IAG's convertible preference share offer leaves a clear investment decision.

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How to make money on QBE

Nathan Bell QBE may have been battered after its profit downgrade but an arbitrage opportunity offers a chance for some 'intelligent speculation'.

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Harvey Norman: Crisis approaching?

Nathan Bell The retailer is running out of time and options to get its business back on a growth track.

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How to fix David Jones

Nathan Bell David Jones needs more innovation and there are plenty of things it could do to make it a unique attraction. Here are just a few suggestions.

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Commonwealth Bank's shaky future

Nathan Bell Although you wouldn’t see it in the Commonwealth Bank’s latest result, banks are beginning to struggle.

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Unlocking the Macquarie value puzzle

Nathan Bell Macquarie Group's share price has increased 35 per cent since the low of $19.94 on 26 September, 2011. One might imagine that recent news has been very good indeed. In fact, it has been almost universally bad.

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Gassing up on an east coast opportunity

Nathan Bell The age of cheap gas is over. For years, eastern Australia enjoyed among the lowest gas prices in the developed world. At around $3 a gigajoule (gj), gas costs just a third of what it does in West Australia and far lower than the price Europeans or Asians pay.

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News Corp rebound holds important lesson

Nathan Bell Behavioural economists and successful value investors understand an important truth that most miss:

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Carsales cleans up the yard - for now

Nathan Bell Carsales offers some gobsmacking numbers that few businesses enjoy. Then again, the company may not enjoy them for much longer.

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A tale of two oil prices

Nathan Bell Something very strange is happening in oil markets. The two main oil price benchmarks - West Texas Intermediary (WTI) and Brent - are behaving bizarrely.

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If gold's a bubble, when will it burst?

Nathan Bell The words 'bubble' and 'gold' aren't exactly strangers. Since gold began its long march from lows of below $300 in the early 2000s, a bubble has been called numerous times.

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Woodside on the cheap?

Nathan Bell Australia's oil prioducers have seen their share prices hammered along with sliding global crude of late. Woodside, though, is a worth a second look.

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Opportunities amid the carnage

Nathan Bell Warren Buffett famously said, 'be greedy when others are fearful'. That's easier said than done but now is in fact the time to be greedy.

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The carbon tax sideshow

Nathan Bell The carbon tax is neither as ruinous nor as revolutionary as political protagonists on each side would have you believe.

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Tap Oil's lucky hand

Nathan Bell There's a lot to like about Tap Oil but can it overcome its timid past and make the most of its luck?

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Once great Rio now second best

Nathan Bell Australian investors today have a choice of two diversified mining giants - BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. But which business is the better bet?

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The dark side of the boom

Nathan Bell Want to rent a house in a mining town? Be prepared to stump up thousands of dollars a week for a modest dwelling. Fancy a coffee in Perth? You'll pay the highest price in the land, thanks. Want a hotel at short notice? Forget it.

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Follow the leaders

Nathan Bell It's worth spending time following talented investors from around the globe, not to seek stock tips but to understand their approach to investing.

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How anchoring can set you adrift

Nathan Bell The tendency to focus on irrelevant information will get you in trouble if you're an investor.

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Got a stock tip? Give it the 10-point test

Nathan Bell How many times has a friend offered you a stock tip? How many have worked out? Here's a guide that may increase the odds in your favour.

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Exchange traded funds to avoid

Nathan Bell It pays to read the fine print when investing - particularly if you're looking at certain exchange traded international securities.

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Why LNG is the new (black) gold

Nathan Bell Natural gas looks to have a bright future as demand rises fast enough to head off a supply glut.

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The dark side of owner-management

Nathan Bell Cellestis highlights why owner managers of companies don't always act in the best interests of all the shareholders.

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Why the resources boom can't last

Greg Hoffman If capitalism works, and for the most part, it does, then the resources boom has to either peter out or bust.

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Seeds of next banking crisis now being sown

Greg Hoffman The big banks have learned that it pays to be capitalist on the way up and socialist on the way down, and that creates risks for the future.

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Don't be a stockpicking monkey

Greg Hoffman Monkeys are great stockpickers, or so it would seem when good return owe as much to luck than investing skill.

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How the GFC changed investing

Greg Hoffman What investors learned about the best way to respond to major shifts such as the global financial crisis.

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How to profit from Buffett the bull

Greg Hoffman The famous billionaire is upbeat about the US economy - and there's some sage advice for investors Down Under.

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The crowd won't make you rich

Greg Hoffman We've all got our investing styles, but here's why many aren't worth a cracker.

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What's behind the credit drought?

Greg Hoffman Credit is an economy's rocket fuel, so when the supply starts to falter investors should start asking what's up.

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Higher tax for you, higher profits for your fund manager

Greg Hoffman Do you maximise your fund’s reported performance (and hence your employer’s fees) or maximise the actual after-tax returns many of your investors will receive?

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Two big risks: China, house prices

Greg Hoffman Investors should always consider what might go wrong. For 2011, China, the dollar and Australian house prices loss as among the biggest threats.

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Avoid ANZ (unless you're a fund manager)

Greg Hoffman Fund managers prefer to fail conventionally and lose money with the rest of the herd. Even if they must buy ANZ, doesn't mean you must.

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CommBank bonds under the microscope

Greg Hoffman A $500m bond offering from Commonwealth Bank is a good prompt for a closer look at the bank's financing.

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Why Westpac is worth buying, despite risks

Greg Hoffman It’s important to recognise an investment in any of Australia’s big banks is akin to a “reverse lottery”, offering every chance of a decent return but a small chance of a big loss.

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How to profit from a strong dollar

Greg Hoffman Australia may well be viewed as an economic oasis from abroad. Here's how to make it work for your stock portfolio.

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Tabcorp and QR National: A week of spin

Greg Hoffman QR National’s spin doctors weren’t the only ones working the phones last week.

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In a quandary over QR National

Greg Hoffman Even if QR National isn't a great long-term bet, it doesn't mean there won't be a price spike at the opening.

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Would Rich Dad buy QR National?

Greg Hoffman Somebody's going to make a lot of money out of the QR National float - but it's probably not investors who invest into the IPO.

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Australia's 10 best businesses

Greg Hoffman Some of our top picks are companies that have lagged the overall market, such as Computershare - here's why.

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Santos disappointment provides opportunity

Greg Hoffman Just five years ago, Santos was largely a domestic gas business with most of its production coming from ageing Cooper Basin fields.

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BHP morphs into an ideology

Greg Hoffman Australia's biggest company is no longer just a stock. It's also become a bet on Australia's increasing ties to Asia's dynamism.

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Dodging the deflation bullet

Greg Hoffman There are ways to minimise the damage to your portfolio if the major economies sink into deflation. Trouble is, many of them are outside Australia.

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Investing lessons from AMP and QBE results

Greg Hoffman Over time, the market is more of a weighing machine than a voting one. That's why AMP and QBE are now worth a second look.

Telstra’s dividend under siege

Greg Hoffman Telstra’s problems are similar to those of the Greek government - both face a sluggish or even negative revenue outlook and rely on licks of debt from their lenders.

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Lessons from the Kathmandu float

Greg Hoffman The sharemarket is an expensive place to learn - as investors in Kathmandu's float have learned to their cost.

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Update your watchlist: it’s reporting season

Greg Hoffman Over the coming weeks analysts across the country will turn their attention to profit reporting season. It’s a difficult one to prepare for, as a couple of recent warnings from financial stocks illustrate.

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How Australia's banks could trigger a property crash

Greg Hoffman It's not just a case that falling property prices would hurt the banks - the opposite would also be true if credit costs start to rise.

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Bank headlines you won't want to see

Greg Hoffman Few people understand how dependent our banks are on foreign debt and how exposed it leaves them to future market convulsions.

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Do our banks have an Achilles' heel?

Greg Hoffman Australia's big banks survived the global financial crisis but they have retained their Achilles' heel.

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Dulux's pretty picture, Part II

Greg Hoffman Strong brands, high market shares and, yes, a potential takeover from Azko Nobel mean there is a lot to like about DuluxGroup.

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Dulux paints a pretty picture

Greg Hoffman With a dearth of bona fide floats in recent months, Dulux was the closest thing we've had for a while, so it's worth taking a close look.

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Paul the octopus proves Buffett was right

Greg Hoffman The unlikely hero of the recent World Cup of football? Paul the octopus, a common cephalopod living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany.

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The art of corporate influence

Greg Hoffman Why there's no such thing as a free lunch - nor free tickets to the Sydney Sinfonia, for that matter.

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House prices dim bank stocks' allure

Greg Hoffman Australia's steep housing prices are one reason why we're not ready to recommend buying shares in Australia's best banks.

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Recent market pullback may signal 'new normal'

Greg Hoffman In many ways it feels as if the world is conforming to a ''new normal''.

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Happy bargain hunting

Greg Hoffman It's the smaller stocks that add the spice - and that can come in for the most savage treatment at the hands of tax loss sellers.

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Making the wrong call on Telstra

Greg Hoffman Analysing medical diagnoses can be a bit like interpreting financial news. Sometime the initial call is wrong, and Telstra's latest 'deal' may be a case in point.

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Beware of Tigers in the sharemarket

Greg Hoffman Just because it's easier to play the stock market than the golf course, doesn't mean it's fair game for everybody.

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Value in Valemus float?

Greg Hoffman On the face of it, Valemus is the latest share offering that investors should avoid.

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Investors given mushroom treatment

Greg Hoffman Australians are the world's second-largest consumers of mushrooms. That growers struggle to survive tells us a lot about the market forces at play.

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Australia's best managers

Greg Hoffman Good company chiefs need to do two things well: run the business well and know where to park the profits. Who would you count among Australia's best?

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Big falls prompt big questions

Greg Hoffman Steep falls in share prices make it a good time to think about the sort of financial advice you really need.

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Floats, spin and Munger's Rule

Greg Hoffman Figures and projections aren't very useful guides when it comes to share floats. It's amazing how many big investors haven't worked that out.

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Europe's debt spectre spooks investors

Greg Hoffman Europe's debt woes have some renowned investors more worried about the state of the global economy than ever. Is that view overdone?

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Miners' call doesn't ring true

Greg Hoffman Working out what a super-profit tax would do your investment portfolio isn't being made any easier by the confusing message advanced by the miners.

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AMP hits an inflection point

Greg Hoffman AMP promised accountability after its overseas misadventure. Here's what we got.

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AMP's performance in the spotlight

Greg Hoffman AMP set itself an ambitious five-year plan in mid-2005. Here's how close it's come to meeting those goals.

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Brokers ignore risk on Telstra

Greg Hoffman The unanimity of analysts' confidence about Telstra maintaining its dividend should ring more alarm bells.

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Time to step up to the bar for Foster's

Greg Hoffman While it isn’t yet a compelling bargain, Foster’s does, after many years, now offer reasonable value.

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Lifting a glass to Foster's shares

Greg Hoffman Boring is not always a bad thing when it comes to investments, as Foster's Group demonstrates.

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Time to give up debt addiction

Greg Hoffman There are reasons for welcoming the world's renewed fears about excessive debt levels. Kicking the habits of a generation, though, won't be painless.

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Corporate Express shareholders get short shrift

Greg Hoffman For a company about to be taken over, Corporate Express should have told shareholders a lot more than they did in their 'trading update'.

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Hastings hangs small investors out to dry

Greg Hoffman A ‘healthy discussion’ has erupted around the latest deal announced by the $1b Australian Infrastructure Fund and its Westpac-linked managers Hastings Funds.