The return from the summer break brings a refreshing look at the year ahead and so it is with this humble little column.
Charlie and Louise are back. I'm talking to them, but I don't think they're talking to each other. But they will.
Around the world 2009 was a good year to forget for many in media and marketing, but Australia wasn't so bad. As we were beating the pants off the Pakistani cricketers anywhere there was a cricket ground with green grass, Sir Martin Sorrell, head of the industry giant WPP, was commentating on the rest of the world.
In a statement almost as hard to read as a doosra from Saeed Ajmal, he said the global economy was "less worse but not in recovery".
Regular readers of this column last year will know we always said that Australia was in good shape. The downturn was just two years and as the new year rolled around, the advertising figures from around the world rolled in.
Charlie, who we rely on for our corporate wisdom, was close to the mark again. His forecast of a downturn of 7 per cent in Australian advertising was off just a bit. In fact, it slipped 8 per cent and Louise is still beating him up for being so wrong. Seeing he gave us the forecast 18 months ago, I think she should go easy on him.
The rest of the world wasn't such a good place to be, which caused the grief in Sir Martin's comments.
TNS estimates the US market fell 14.7 per cent and the World Advertising Research Centre estimates Britain was down 15 per cent for the year.
Back home, all the economic indicators are for a strong recovery this year. Business confidence is running at positive levels not seen since 2003.
Similarly, consumer confidence is high - the graph is at its highest point since 2006. Advertisers' budgets for 2010 are following the recovery of retail sales in the last half of 2009. TV bookings grew about 5 per cent in January and forward media bookings for February and March are healthier than the same time last year. We are forecasting growth in ad spend this year to be in the region of 5 per cent.
The hot dry summer reminds us of the way our country depends so heavily on the rains. Even though we are a nation of people from 200 different places of origin, we still live in the world of Dorothea Mackellar.
I love a sunburnt country,And so the rains of the last week are starting to be shared around. As the Darling and the Murray fill from their upper reaches, so it is with advertising. Things are starting to blossom and colour is returning to the floodplains, and also returning to the faces of media and marketing executives everywhere.
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
Australia's famous wildlife and birdlife is flourishing again. But as with every resurgence and the growth of new grass, you'll still need to tread carefully because February is the mating season for Australian reptiles. The abundance of grass means there are plenty of tiger and brown snakes lurking. Enjoy the prosperity but keep an eye out for the snakes.
