Companies are set to hire more workers in coming months, to meet the demands of a strengthening economy, a survey shows.
Dun and Bradstreet’s national business expectations survey shows employment expectations for the June quarter have jumped to 5 index points, up from a flat reading for March. The June quarter result, 31 percentage points higher than a year ago, is the strongest rebound in the 22-year history of the survey.
It points to an improving job market in Australia, offering hope for job seekers and businesses looking to increase capacity and profits in months ahead.
Official data later this week is expected to show 15,000 jobs were created in January, even as the jobless rate is tipped to rise to 5.6 per cent from 5.5 per cent. The unemployment rate has hovered under 6 per cent through the financial crisis, well below the 8 per cent peak tipped by economists at the outset of the financial crisis.
The Reserve Bank has acknowledged that the downturn in Australia has been mild and a recovery is underway. Australia was among the first developed nations to raise rates last year, lifting them three times to 3.75 per cent.
Analysts now hope that the worst of the downturn has passed and jobs growth will continue to gather pace.
The January Olivier internet job index, released over the weekend, rose 3.5 per cent, as well, boding well for those seeking work.
“With unemployment being seen as a major concern throughout 2009 the improved employment expectations across all sectors is welcome news for both those who are in the labour market and for business confidence on the whole,” said Dun & Bradstreet chief executive Christine Christian.
However, not all data or sentiment have turned positive.
ANZ job advertisements, out last week, dropped by 8.1 per cent in January, following two months of gains that foreshadowed the improvement in official measures.
The unevenness in the leading indicators suggests gains in the labour market may not be experienced by everyone.
Strength in mining
Recruiter IPA said the pace of hiring has picked up but employers are still showing hesitation about the outlook.
“We’re seeing a lot of employers still using us,” said IPA chief executive Rabieh Krayem. Those clients have candidates on IPA’s books working full-time hours without being hired outright by the company.
One area that has shown strength, he said, was the mining sector.
But until the market’s rebound is more compelling, employers won’t be confident enough to bring the staff on full time, Mr Krayem said.
March and April will be an important period for employers to set the pace of hiring for the rest of the year, Mr Krayem said.
Before hiring in earnest, companies will need assurance that the economic shocks seen over the past two years won’t return, he said.
February consumer confidence, an important read on the mood of households towards spending, will be released tomorrow. It expanded by 5.6 per cent in January, despite the RBA’s rate-hikes.
czappone@fairfax.com.au
BusinessDay
