Property analysts say a seven per cent surge in Brisbane house prices last year is not a true reflection of capital growth.
The Australian Property Monitors House Price Report, released yesterday, showed the median house price jumped from $413,767 to $445,562 in the 12 months to December, helped by a strong, three percent rise in values in the last quarter of 2009.
Unit values experienced more conservative growth of 1.8 per cent over the year, and actually fell by 1.4 per cent in the December quarter – the only sector in the country to go backwards.
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Brisbane, coasts among world's most unaffordable
Inflation low but interest rates to rise
OPINION: Grey skies bring economic spin
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While the rise caught many off guard yesterday, Australian Property Monitors said median house price growth in Brisbane was still well below the national average of 12.1 per cent, and far less than the Melbourne housing market, which logged a whopping 18.5 increase in prices over the year.
But property analysts have warned against panic, saying the figures have been skewed by strong sales in only one sector of the market – the luxury end - which held up strongly against the global financial crisis.
RP Data’s national research director, Tim Lawless, said the anticipated effects of the first-home buyers’ grant wind-back late last year had also artificially inflated the Brisbane median.
''The figures released by APM are unexpectedly high and are likely to reflect a change in the types of properties that are transacting rather than true capital growth,” Mr Lawless said.
''A resurgence of interest in higher priced properties combined with the fall back of first home buyers is likely to have played a role in inflating the latest growth figures.''
RP Data will release its RP Data-Rismark Index tomorrow, which it claims takes into account transactional bias.
Funds manager and advisory firm Rismark International’s chief executive officer Christopher Joye said the company’s own data would ''provide a substantially more conservative picture of Australia’s housing market conditions''.
''The median price indices are being artificially boosted by the fading of first time buyers and the return of upgraders buying more expensive homes,'' Mr Joye said.
''The true rates of capital gains across Australia are substantially less than those reported by median price providers.''
Yesterday’s figures came within hours of the release of a damning survey of international housing markets which ranked South-East Queensland among the most unaffordable places to live in the world.
The Gold and Sunshine coasts scored higher than New York and London in the unaffordability stakes, followed closely by Brisbane.
The annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey examined 272 markets in six countries, including Australia, the US, UK, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand, and compared median house prices with median yearly household incomes.
Inflation rose a modest 2.1 per cent in 2009 - or 0.5 per cent int he December quarter - which has economists predicting interest rates will almost certainly rise this year.
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