Business

Housing affordability hits the wall

Chris Zappone
February 22, 2010

Video will begin in 5 seconds.

Video settings

What type of connection do you have?

Video settings form
  1. Note: A cookie will be set to keep your preferences.

Video settings

Your video format settings have been saved.

Property: ultimate auction action

House buyers in the red corner battered as soaring auction clearance rates pile on the pain over the weekend.

First-home buyer housing affordability crashed in the final three months of 2009, as would-be purchasers of homes confronted higher interest rates and surging prices.

The affordability index's slide accelerated 18.4 per cent in the December quarter, following a 3.3 per cent fall in the September quarter, according to the Housing Industry Association and Commonwealth Bank, which compiled the data.

The index dropped from 147.1 points in the September quarter, to 120.1 points in the December quarter. The median monthly mortgage payments in that time jumped to $2505 from $2087.

With interest rates expected to rise from their current 3.75 per cent level, surging demand from international investors and a slow growth of new construction, affordability is expected to continue to suffer in coming months, the report said.

Canberra-based academic Phillip Winn said he and his partner have been looking to buy a house but have watched in dismay as home prices continually outpace their savings level.

''What absolutely stuns us - and seems to me to be historically unprecedented in Australia - is that people on a reasonable income (slightly higher than median) can no longer afford to purchase a reasonable house (2-3 bedroom, one bathroom), a reasonable distance from where they work,'' said Dr Winn.

''That is, unless we are willing to embrace a huge level of personal debt - in proportion to annual income certainly beyond anything earlier generations encountered - an option that seems to us to be unwise and most likely unsustainable.''

''Beyond clichés about Gen X-ers' 'Boomer-envy' and Gen Y-ers' 'sense of entitlement' is the reality that ever-rising house prices have overshot income levels to an extraordinary degree in this country,'' he said.

He describes he and his partner as ''savers'' with ''fairly modest'' housing aims.

Hobart, Sydney lead falls

First-home buyer affordability dropped by 22.3 per cent in Sydney, 18.4 per cent in Melbourne, 21.5 per cent in Queensland, and 19.1 per cent in Adelaide.

In Hobart, affordability dropped more than any other capital city, collapsing 28.7 per cent.

In Perth, it fell 16.3 per cent, while in Canberra affordability fell 22.2 per cent.

Capital city home prices rose by an average of 13.6 per cent for the year to December, official data show, pushed up by a shortage of available housing, rising population growth, a strong economy, government grants, as well as by low interest rates and the relaxation of foreign investment rules.

Generation gap

Runaway home prices rises have exposed a gap between older homeowners and younger would-be buyers struggling to get into the market.

The Reserve Bank said in December that many 50-60 year olds had benefited from a strong economy - which hasn't experienced a recession in nearly two decades - to enjoy secure financial positions.

Older homeowners have borrowed more later in life to fund upgrades and expansion of homes, helping drive up prices.

However, typical first-time home buyers, usually under 35 years old, have seen a ''noticeable decline in home ownership over the past 10-15 years,'' the RBA said.

Hornsby, NSW-based Eve Roberts is 29 and bristles at the suggestion that people in her age set have brought the affordability issue on themselves.

''Despite being on reasonable salaries my partner and I can't afford to buy an apartment, or to have children for that matter,'' she said.

''The baby boomers who relish house prices going up are unfortunately to blame - why? Because for many, owning their house is the only thing they've managed to accomplish in their lives and want to see its value go up astronomically.''

''Generation Y having an entitlement issue? Give me a break.''

Ms Roberts said Baby Boomers are short-sighted for not seeing the generational burden that has been allowed to take hold.

''Unfortunately their foresight is so poor that they don't realise that in 10-20 years time, as they struggle to move from room to room and go to the toilet unaided, their children and grandchildren will be too busy working off their mortgages to come and visit them at the nursing home.''

czappone@fairfax.com.au
BusinessDay

156 comments

  • From promising to address affordability before they came to power, and look what we get. Increased subsidies into EXISTING housing that the Productivity Commission reported went straight into pushing up prices... Then we get the absolutely disgraceful decision to relax the foreign investment rules. This needs to be reversed NOW. Anyone aspiring to own a home should be outraged....

    Well done Rudd, Swan, Tanner and Plibersek....

    Bring on the election!

    Commenter
    Enrico
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:10AM
  • ''Unfortunately their foresight is so poor that they don't realise that in 10-20 years time, as they struggle to move from room to room and go to the toilet unaided, their children and grandchildren will be too busy working off their mortgages to come and visit them at the nursing home.'' - Eve Roberts

    Fair call.

    In fact, it is not clear who will be able to afford to work in aged care - or at least, not in facilities located in our capital cities, where such workers may well face the prospects of being priced out both renting or buying a home.

    Commenter
    Emily
    Location
    Brisbane
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:28AM
  • Firstly, I am bored by this unproductive polarised political blame game - grow up.
    Secondly, I am 30, married, earn above median, and have no chance of owning property within 20 kms of work without going straight into morgage stress. One thing the pollies should start to realise is the global market of labor. My wife is from the EU, despite the poor economic conditions in Europe, we will both find work and live in the lap of luxury for fraction of what we would pay in Sydney.
    If we move, Australia will lose 2 educated and skilled professionals, as well as all the juicy taxes that we currently pay. We love Sydney, but cannot afford it, especially if we want to start a family.
    Global capitalism of labor = bye bye Sydney.

    Commenter
    Andy
    Location
    The Hills
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:27AM
  • Wasn't Rudd going to do something about the housing crisis??? Many people in Generation X and Y voted for him over this one issue. It was the large vote of Generation X and Y that got him in power and he will loose that with his Howard like inaction.

    Commenter
    Michael K
    Location
    Brisbane
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:32AM
  • Went to an auction on weekend and came down to two overseas investors with interpreters, I don't think they did there research as
    they paid 570,000 compared to a same unit in the complex which sold a few months earlier for 478,000.
    The realestate agent now has placed leaflets in the rest of the unit
    complex wanting listings as he has "overseas buyers waiting".
    Some very disappointed registered bidders did not get a lookin, agents price range was 440-470

    Commenter
    nww
    Location
    sydney
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:27AM
  • Until we sort out the transportation infrastructure woes in our major cities (50+ years of chronic underinvestment in light/heavy rail now coming home to roost!) we will have no chance of bringing inner ring (

    With 1.5+ hour travel times in each direction increasingly the norm for those living outside the inner ring, who can be surprised that we have lots of hot dollars chasing the few desirable properties.

    Only a serious investment in infrastructure can bring more houses within the 1.0 hour travel window (30-40 minutes even better) meaning that more people will be willing to live further out, thereby taking the heat out of inner city house prices.

    Commenter
    Dave
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:36AM
  • Don't people realise that the average number used for House prices are just that. An average. If you change the Self Managed Superannuation rules to allow wealthy investors to leverage their Superannuation funds, this allows money to fuel a speculative bubble. Combined with changes to foreign investment rules, generous Capital Gains Tax advantages for owner occupiers, negative gearing and relaxed bank lending using cheap foreign (Gov't guaranteed) money, the top end of the market will rise. This increases the average price of property. If you are buying a home and you are an Australian resident, look at the median house price. Don't understand it? Google the meaning. Property spruikers are quoting house price rises based on the top end of the market. Don't get caught out buying overpriced median homes. There is a lot of land in this country and if they decide to release land by zone changes, your property will not rise in value with inflation for the long term. You will pay a lot of interest in your life time, instead of spending that money on your children, yourself and enjoying the 70 years on this planet.

    Commenter
    Buddy Rojek, CPA
    Location
    Essendon
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:35AM
  • It would be nice to think that there was a solution that works for everybody - unfortunately the solution for first home buyers (those that HAVENT bought yet) is a partial crash in the property market such that prices come back a little towards more realistic levels - or at least cease rapid growth.

    That this would hurt investors and people who are already in houses but living close to their margins is clear consequence.

    The problem we have at the moment is the need to boost construction to deal with the remains of the impacts of the GFC whilst inflation itself is a real concern. Why are house prices going up so far whilst salaries are remaining fairly stagnant? the more time that passes, the bigger the gap and the more likely that a correction will be seen.

    It would be nice to think that we could restrict international investment and reduce tax breaks for investors to allow the first buyers a chance to enter a lower market. But would doing that actually have that much positive impact and who exactly would it help? Not the country...

    Commenter
    martin
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:34AM
  • Unfortunately, the generation gap is gradually also becoming a financial (at least house/property wise) gap as well. And a big one at that. Particularly for first-home buyers not prepared to compromise. My first home was a 1 bedroom unit in a modest inner-west suburb 5 or 6 stops from Central. This was a compromise but initially a foot in the door.
    One major affordability factor is desire to be close to work. Totally understandable. However there are many other factors quite apart from the narrow perspective of "entitlement issues".
    All demographics/cohorts whatever are part of our economy and our society. Dig in and have a go and be decisive. And yes, give us all a break. Please?!

    Commenter
    Inner City Boomer
    Location
    Inner Sydney
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:19AM
  • The problem with younger gen x and older gen y is that they want the McMansion as their first home. My first home was a dump in Bogan Central in Aug 03. Gen Y want the Moet lifestyle on a Passion Pop budget. Back to property, gone are the days of saving for a deposit. If people really want to own their own home, they'll have to invest through shares or even buy an IP in order to progress to a PPOR. You can have a lifestyle or a home when starting out, not both.

    Commenter
    Priveliged
    Location
    Canberra
    Date and time
    February 22, 2010, 11:37AM

More comments

Comments are now closed

More Related Coverage

Thumbnail image for video asset.Click to play video

Video

Property: ultimate auction action

House buyers in the red corner battered as soaring auction clearance rates pile on the pain over the weekend.

What happens when an Aussie housing bubble bursts

22 Feb Yes, Virginia, Australia does suffer housing bubbles that burst but, no, Dr Keen, they don't do it in the Armageddon fashion you imagine.

Scheme not paying the rent

Far from encouraging investors to put money into affordable housing, the government's cheap rental scheme has attracted property sharks.