Slump in job ads clouds economic outlook

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Slump in job ads clouds economic outlook

Newspapers and online sites carried fewer job advertisements last month, pointing to weakness in the economy's rebound.

The monthly survey by ANZ Bank showed the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 8.1 per cent in January to an average of 134,106 per week, seasonally adjusted. That compares with a 4.6 per cent gain in December, a figure revised down from the 6 per cent growth pace originally published.

"The monthly decline in job advertisements highlights the fragility inherent in the current recovery phase, but we should see more solid growth rates as we move further into 2010,'' ANZ acting chief economist Warren Hogan said in a statement this morning.

The report of fewer job ads bucks the recent trend of data pointing to stronger growth as the economy picks up from a slowdown last year. But today’s figures are unlikely to prevent the Reserve Bank from raising its official cash rate for an unprecedented fourth consecutive month when its board meets tomorrow.

In trend terms, growth in job ads decelerated to 1 per cent in December - their slowest pace of growth since August 2009 - but still firmly positive, ANZ said.

"In the near term, the forward indicators appear positive for more employment growth through the first half of 2010, although probably at a slower pace than seen over the past four months,'' Mr Hogan said.

Over the year, total job ads were up 7.1 per cent from the cyclical low recorded in July.



Of the two media tracked, major metropolitan newspapers carried 16.6 per cent fewer job ads in January after growing by 11.6 per cent in December, to an average of 8796 per week, seasonally adjusted. Newspaper job ads were 23.5 per cent lower than in January 2009.

In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements grew by 1.4 per cent in January, their weakest monthly growth since July 2009. In annual trend growth rate terms, however, newspaper job ad numbers continued to improve, and are now just 3.4 per cent lower than they were in January 2009, the bank said.

Newspaper job ads declined in all states and territories in January, with the largest monthly falls recorded in Victoria (-26.9 per cent) and Tasmania (-25.6 per cent) and the smallest monthly falls recorded in WA (-4.6 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-11.9 per cent)

The number of internet job ads fell by 7.5 per cent to average 125,310 per week. This was 26 per cent lower than in January 2009, but 7 per cent above their July 2009 low point.

In trend terms, internet job ads grew by 0.9 per cent in January, the ANZ said.

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