Australia has posted a larger-than-expected trade surplus for October, as exports inched up while imports fell.
The Australian balance of goods and services showed a surplus of $2.625 billion for the month, the seventh straight month of sizable surpluses and a boost to incomes and investment. The median market forecast was for a surplus of $2 billion in the month.
The surplus was the second highest on record, topped only by the $3.62 billion surplus recorded in June.
During October, exports were up 1 per cent in adjusted terms, while imports were down 3 per cent. September's surplus was revised higher to $1.814 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.
JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman said the headline number was broadly in line with market forecasts and predicted that interest rates would stay on hold until March next year.
‘‘Exports we thought would have accelerated given the fact that the Chinese, and more broadly the emerging Asian data, seems to have turned a corner in the last couple of months,’’ Mr Jarman said.
‘‘After shifting down in the middle of the year growth in that region seems to be ramping up which is obviously pretty positive for our export sector.’’
The terms of trade export earnings story was ‘‘still flowing through the numbers here’’, he said.
The surge in export earnings enjoyed this year is a major reason the Reserve Bank raised rates last month in a pre-emptive strike against inflationary pressures.
"The trade numbers were good news, as it was net exports that dragged on growth in the third quarter," said Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican. "That looks like it will turnaround this quarter and support growth."
Wires, with BusinessDay