Strong trade surplus may force rates higher

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Strong trade surplus may force rates higher

Australia continues to post strong trade surplus, but it may mean the central bank will have to raise the cash rate, economists say.

The Australian trade surplus narrowed in June, to $2.052 billion, seasonally adjusted, compared with an upwardly revised $2.699 billion surplus in May.

Economists' forecasts had centred on a $2.2 billion surplus in June.

Commsec economist Savanth Sebastian said the trade figures showed Australia was continuing to pay its way in the world.

"We've seen pretty healthy trade surpluses over the past months, which clearly suggests there is a significant boost in income that is taking place at the moment," he said.

"Once those activity levels pick up, it does signify that the Reserve Bank will start looking at rate hikes once again.

"I think this resounding boost to Australia's coffers is going to remain part of the economic landscape for the remainder of the year.

"There is no question the Australian dollar is ensuring imports are a lot cheaper as well."

Nomura chief economist Stephen Roberts said Australia's trade balance saw a strong lift in the second quarter of the year.

"It's over $6.4 billion for second quarter relative to first quarter, (which was) $3 billion," he said.

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"After allowing for price changes, that probably contributes to about 0.4 percentage points to GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the second quarter."

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He said the fixed income market didn't react greatly to the data.

AAP

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