Fears that Channel Nine could fall into receivership next year, jeopardising TV rights contracts, has generated some nervousness among sports officials, particularly in cricket and rugby league, while codes relying on pay TV contracts are grateful they signed with the Packer/Murdoch-owned Premier Media Group.
A drop of more than 12 per cent in advertising revenues between January and June next year could see the banks move on Nine, forcing a receiver to decide whether to keep the NRL and Cricket Australia contracts alive.
The news that private equity firm CVC Asia Pacific has been forced to inject a further $325 million into debt-laden PBL Media caused some anxiety among NRL club bosses at a conference at Byron Bay last week.
It followed a move by PBL to enlist a supply chain consultancy group to identify more cost savings, reinforcing the steps that the company will take to keep the receivers away.
However, the NRL's chief executive, David Gallop, rejects the Doomsday scenario, saying: "I had lunch with [Nine boss] David Gyngell recently and we discussed a couple of opportunities to promote the game.
"Everything is positive. Our current TV deal does not involve sharing of revenue, meaning any advertising downturn does not affect us. It's not rights fees plus a share of profits. It's all guaranteed."
Rugby union's executive director, John O'Neill, could not resist a shot at rugby league, following its recently concluded successful World Cup, but used Channel Nine to fire it.
"The news that the rights for the 2011 and 2015 Rugby World Cups have gone to Channel Nine and Fox Sports [owned by PMG] has largely passed under the radar," he said, pointing out that the host nation for the 2015 tournament has yet to be decided.
"Channel Nine has seen the light and realises rugby union is on the ascendancy."
O'Neill, who did soccer's deal with Fox Sports when he was the FFA chief executive, did concede he was relieved rugby union's Super 14 contract was with News Ltd, half-owners of Fox Sports.
"Our SANZA deal is with News Ltd, who then onsell the product to networks such as Fox Sports, Sky New Zealand and so on," he said.
"For the next two years, we're all right. I agree with Rupert Murdoch, who says cable subscription TV will be more resilient than free-to-air because it is not [so] reliant on advertising revenue … Free-to-air will suffer as big companies cut their advertising spend."
Should Nine go into receivership, rugby league may be forced to deal with channels Seven and Ten, who share the AFL contract. New high-definition channels would allow these networks, subject to legislative change, to screen both NRL and AFL.
Gallop would be reluctant to farm Nine's three NRL games to Fox Sports, which at present shows five games a week. After all, only a quarter of Australian homes subscribe to pay TV, meaning codes such as soccer and rugby union are restricted in growing their audience, sponsorship base and potential playing talent.
Delegates to the NRL's Byron Bay conference did speculate on a small story in the media about the expiry of Telstra's no-compete-for-sports-content contract with Fox Sports.
"The deal between PMG and Telstra has expired, not just for rugby league but all sport," an NRL spokesman said.
"Telstra can bid for content and show it on Telstra.com when the existing NRL contract concludes.
"Our current deal with Telstra is that they remain on a 24-hour holdback on rugby league games."
However, Telstra was able to stream all World Cup games live because the contract was not with the NRL.
Preliminary research indicates internet users embraced the games, watching snippets rather than entire matches. Almost all Nine's World Cup games and some Fox Sports games were on delay. Nine has always been protective of its rights, not allowing Fox Sports to screen NRL games in Melbourne until after they have been shown on Nine at hours frequented only by insomniacs and shift workers.
Telstra's website streaming gave rugby league the opportunity to consider if a separate market exists through broadband.
It doesn't mean free-to-air TV is dead. It will have a long tail, as the resilience of AM radio has demonstrated. But Nine's tail could be a little shorter.
