Rates rise for October?
Business Day reporter Chris Zappone explains why an upcoming rates rise by the RBA is expected soon.
ANOTHER jump in job advertisements has fuelled speculation that the Reserve Bank today could start rolling out the interest rate rises it has been flagging for several months.
The Reserve's board meets in Sydney a week after its governor, Glenn Stevens, told a Senate committee that the recession was over and warned of the dangers of leaving interest rates at ''emergency settings'' when the emergency had passed.
Two new bits of data yesterday added to the evidence of recovery.
The ANZ Bank reported strong growth in job ads for the second month in a row, rising 4.4 per cent; newspaper and internet ads shared the gains.
A new survey by Dun & Bradstreet also reported that employment had now turned the corner, with 14 per cent of firms planning to hire more staff in the December quarter and 10 per cent planning staff cuts.
Dun & Bradstreet chief executive Christine Christian said it was the first time in 15 months that more employers had planned to hire staff than fire them. The survey found firms were positive about the sales and profits outlook, and planned to lift inventories and investment.
One of the best interest rate tipsters, Macquarie Bank economist Rory Robertson, predicts the Reserve will move today to lift interest rates a notch - to 3.25 per cent.
''The good news on the Australian economy over recent months has been bad news for interest rates,'' Mr Robertson said.
''It now seems the solid gains in August for retail sales, house building approvals, home prices and housing credit have dragged forward the first 25 basis points hike.''
But Treasury chief Ken Henry, who sits on the bank's board, appears less certain that the recovery is here to stay. It is only six months since the board insisted on a rate cut the Reserve's staff had not recommended.
It might not yet be ready to change course.
While Mr Stevens has been flagging rate rises since July, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD have urged caution, saying countries should not remove stimulus until a recovery is firmly under way.
Unemployment in the United States has edged up again to 9.8 per cent in September, with another 263,000 jobs lost. Bankers Trust economist Chris Caton said the US had now lost 7.2 million jobs since the crisis began, 2.1 million of them in manufacturing alone.
Unemployment in the European Union inched up to 9.1 per cent in August, although in some countries it is now stable or falling. In Japan, it fell to 5.5 per cent in August, and in Norway to just 3 per cent.
