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What's new? Boral's new chief executive, Mark Selway, has inherited the proverbial "bucket half full" scenario. The latest set of results from the company shows that residential building activity in Australia, boosted by generous first-home buyer grants and low interest rates, has supported the business.
On the other hand, terrible conditions in the US have prompted the company to reduce its activities there to about 20 per cent of its capacity.
The swinging factor has been the government's stimulus spending in Australia. The headline numbers were eye-catchingly large but Boral notes most of it has gone into "social and institutional" infrastructure (schools and hospitals) rather than roads, highways, subdivisions and bridges.
The former is less materials-intensive than the latter and therefore does not help Boral sell more concrete, cement and construction materials. The real problem for Boral remains the US business. The company reported that its operating profit declined 33 per cent in the half-year to December 31 and it expects a weaker second half-year. The housing market in the US is mired in oversupply and lack of demand, which is forcing prices of building materials down even further.
The outlook Readers of this column may recall our guarded optimism on Boral about August last year. Fundamentally, we thought the company was in reasonable shape, which continues to be the case. The company's management has diligently removed a good deal of costs from the various businesses, which will make any rebound look even better.
Selway is still getting comfortable in his new role and is optimistic about Boral's strong position in all its markets. His initial impressions note the quality of the company's people and its geographical positioning in both Australia and the US.
However, he also hints at the possibility Boral might jettison some underperforming assets after he does a thorough review of the portfolio. Conversely, that might also entail some acquisitions that Boral's conservative balance sheet could handle.
The intractable problem remains the US side of the business. The company seems set on waiting it out and hopefully emerging in better shape than its competitors. Selway has appointed a new person to oversee the US businesses but that won't immediately stem the losses.
The company reaffirmed its full-year profit guidance as being in line with consensus analyst estimates of $123.5 million.
Price After recovering from its March 2009 low point of $2.40, the share price peaked at about $6.36 in October and has drifted lower since. At about $5.55 this week, the price is softer after the interim result announcement.
Worth buying? Last year we were optimistic about the Boral story. In the face of the news the US housing market is taking far longer to recover, and the more insidious news about non-dwelling activity in Australia, we have become more realistic. The share price is a fair reflection of its outlook.
Greg Fraser is an analyst at Fat Prophets sharemarket research.
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